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Wed, 17 Sep 2008 Apple to sell 2.9 million Macs in Q4 - Piper Jaffray

Apple on a roll, despite economic worries

Jonny Evans

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Apple's expected to sell as many as 2.9 million Macs and 11 million iPods in the current quarter, an analyst predicted last night.

Piper Jaffray’s Gene Munster, in a note issued to clients yesterday, estimated "that Apple will sell 2.8 to 2.9 million Macs and 11 million iPods in its fourth fiscal quarter, which ends Sept. 30... based on data released at midday by the NPD Group," Philip Elmer-DeWitt reports for Fortune.

"The Mac numbers represent year-to-year unit growth of 29 per cent to 34 per cent," the report claims. And the estimated 11 million Pod sales will also please analysts - it's an 8 per cent year-on-year increase - Street consensus has been 6 per cent, the report claims.

Apple's US computer sales rose 38 per cent during the second quarter, more than triple that of top PC maker Hewlett-Packard, Gartner said yesterday. And recent ChangeWave consumer surveys have confirmed that 34 per cent of consumers seeking a computer will buy a Mac.

Munster's perhaps less bullish for Apple's iPhone sales, predicting 4.1 million of these will have shifted by the end of the quarter, despite that some industry observers predict a significant slice of sales will come from territories outside of the US.

The final tally? The analyst expects Apple to exceed its stated $7.8 billion earnings target by around $0.7 billion, returning $8.5 billion in the quarter.

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Wayne said on Wed, 17 Sep 2008

Andy... So the fact that about 1 in 15 computers sold in the US are Macs, but 1 in 3 consumers say they will buy one is not impressive?

Sure, it's not uncommon for folks to poll one way, then make a different decision when standing at the ballot box or the cash register. But we're talking 1/3 of consumers here, and that's a pretty large number. And not just 1/3 "like" Macs, but 1/3 believe right now that they will buy one.

Considering that Apple laptops (the fastest growing market segment) have apparently broken the 10% market share barrier in the US, I think there's a lot of upside to Mac sales.

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