Tue, 21 Oct 2008 Recession hits Blu-ray where it counts
The adoption of Blu-ray will be delayed due to the recession
Tech analysts predict a cold winter for Blu-ray. Roger Kay, President of Endpoint Technologies Associates, says Blu-ray sales will experience a dramatic drop during the holiday season and beyond, delaying the adoption process and putting the serious hurt on sales.
Instead of dropping big bucks on Blu-ray players, consumers will instead turn to the technologies they have available, such as Netflix – which now charges extra for Blu-ray rentals – and streaming video. "If you can get movies over the wire on demand and have an entire library at your disposal on the screen a la Netflix, that's the way you're going to go," Kay told The San Francisco Chronicle.
This bad omen comes after Steve Jobs called Blu-ray a "bag of hurt" and said Apple would delay integrating the technology into its products until "Blu-ray takes off in the marketplace." And Blu-ray definitely isn't taking off yet – its market share has dropped, and Sony, Blu-ray's leading backer, hedged its bets on end-of-year sales, a gamble that may fall flat given the current economic climate.
Andy Parsons, the chairman of the Blu-ray Disc Association and the format's number one yea-sayer, compared Blu-ray's gradual ascent to that of the standard DVD. "Everyone thinks of DVD as an overnight success, but it actually took several years for that overnight success to happen." What Parsons does not acknowledge is DVD had only VHS to squash, whereas Blu-ray faces a horde of competition that might keep consumers clinging to their Roku boxes and out of their local Best Buy.
Lately it seems no good news comes from the Blu-ray camp. If and when the economy gets back on track, will Blu-ray finally pique interest? Or is the format facing the possibility of becoming permanently niche?
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Comments received
Lachlan Hunt said on Tue, 21 Oct 2008
I have mixed feelings about Blu-ray. Although I'm boycotting the entire format due to its excessive DRM, I really do want a good quality high definition films, but the current legal download services just aren't hitting the mark since they're largely restricted to the USA, or other countries where I'm not; they're also encumbered with DRM, and the quality of downloads is significantly lower than that of Blu-ray.
Chris W said on Tue, 21 Oct 2008
Blu Ray is good quality but i have compared it to the loser HD DVD and I found HD was clearer than Blu Ray, slightly sharper focus too. I personally think Blu ray will be a short lived wonder, as HD downloads become more popular and spread out to other countries. (hint to Apple there).
This news comes as no surprise and Apple not adopting this into their notebooks is a clear sign they don't hold much faith in the product.
benfrain.com said on Tue, 21 Oct 2008
I can't help feeling if they release a sub £100 player (even as a massive loss leader) into Tesco and the like, the masses will pick one up. At present, no one wants to drop £250 on a player that may or may not be worth it.
Kurt said on Tue, 21 Oct 2008
I can't help but feel that Sony's Blu Ray is following a similar path to Sony's Betamax (even with the demise of HD DVD).
A company will come along with a new high definition technology that will bury Blu Ray, along the lines that benfrain.com mentioned (read inexpensive, but superior quality).
AppleObserver.net said on Tue, 21 Oct 2008
I think Blu-ray is going to struggle against the growing download market. Downloads can't match the quality but they are cheaper and don't need you to buy yet another box to go in the tv cabinet (unless its a ATV of course heee) and more convenient.
While Blu-ray demos I've seen have looked very good, I'm not in the least bit interested in having to buy another play and really don't like the idea of over priced media. I'm quite happy with the quality of my 6yr old Pioneer dvd player plugged into my Panny PX80.
AdrianW said on Tue, 21 Oct 2008
having done a recent poll of my work coleagues (20% of whom have a Blu-Ray) none of us have any faith in having a digital copy of anything due to playback restrictions Window Media etc. And 90% of the people asked said they actually liked having the box/boxart, so I think Blu-Ray is a slow burner that will be successful once market penetration/price (as benfrain.com has mentioned) acceptance is achieved. The PS3 is the best route to Blu-Ray and there is talk of the price dropping to sub £200!!!
Haku said on Tue, 21 Oct 2008
I love Blu-ray, and as a relatively early adopter of DVD I think Blu-ray is doing fine right now, and discs are at similar prices as DVD was at the same stage. I don't think it'll ever be as dominant as DVD was, but I think many are too quick to write Blu-ray off as sales of HD TVs will continue and the infrastructure needed for HD downloads isn't catching up fast enough. I think Blu-ray has a healthy life-span ahead of it.
Tara said on Tue, 21 Oct 2008
Blu ray won't dominate like DVD did, HD via Sky or Virgin will have an impact on sales. Lot of movies are in HD on both systems. I like Blu Ray but I just can't see it being a huge hit really.
Steve said on Wed, 22 Oct 2008
If they want Blu Ray to be more accepted, they need to drop their players down in price, even if they have to sell at a loss. Also, the Blu Ray DVDs are too expensive.
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