Analysts don’t deserve that title, nor not being catapulted out of the window, argues Craig Grannell
There’s a painful inevitability before and after Apple releases a new product that is mirrored in a crushingly depressing manner at almost every waking moment between Apple releasing said new products. I call this the ‘curse of the guesser’. From news reports, you might know guessers as analysts, but I think that term’s too kind for the vast majority of these cursemongers.
The pattern guessers choose to follow is relentlessly methodical. Before Apple releases a new product, guessers must make outlandish claims about how Apple will be doomed unless it adds features competing products have or are possibly planning to have at some unknown date in the future, regardless of the utility and effectiveness of such features. Following Apple releasing a new product, guessers must make outlandish claims about how Apple is now doomed, because it didn’t add features competing products have or are possibly planning to have at some unknown date in the future, regardless of the utility and effectiveness of such features. And at all the points in between… well, you get the idea.
The snag is guessers by their very nature are guessing. Sometimes, one might argue guessers are making educated guesses, but on the basis of their accuracy and effectiveness, said education presumably happened at the Big School Of Tech Numpties. This is really the only explanation (bar crazy people paying guessers actual money to do their guessing) of why guessers continue to bang on the same old guessing drums, despite Apple bucking industry trends and, disobediently, not doing what the guessers command, such as: reducing prices while also increasing profits; making devices that are both smaller and larger; doing precisely what the competition is doing while also staying unique and true to itself. It’s almost like guessers are providing contrary arguments and yet suggesting Apple will fail unless it follows their demands to the letter. And yet the press laps up the guessers’ collective dribble at every available opportunity. “Guesser says Apple doomed in approximately five seconds’ time” said a headline I just made up, if only because it’s more accurate and less irritating than actual headlines technology news websites run based on the words of these strange creatures.
I’m not sure what the solution is regarding dealing with the curse of the guessers; and the curse needs eradicating, given that it regularly impacts on Apple’s share price and the expectations of people worldwide who don’t realise guessers guess. At the time of writing, it’s kind of late, and I’m groggy, and so my research (i.e. typing ‘how to get rid of a curse’ into Google) has led me to the ever-reliable Ask.com, where I’m informed the answer involves employing the services of a witch, a psychic or even the church. (The suggestion is to go with religion, because “you don’t always know who is real” when dealing with witches and psychics!) I’m thinking a better option would be to place every guesser’s office chair on top of a massive computer-controlled catapult. They would guess under the knowledge that more than one inaccurate guess per day would catapult them out of the window (and possibly into the slavering jaws of a giant dragon conjured by a witch big on cosmic irony). This might sound cruel, but it’s the only way. OK, it’s not the only way, but it would be a fun way, and at least if we can ignore the sound of screaming guessers being hurled through the air, we’ll be able to concentrate on the shiny new toys Apple has to offer, without halfwits constantly yelling Apple should be “more like Android”.
Craig Grannell is a loudmouth and iOS gaming nut. Gleefully ignore him at twitter.com/craiggrannell