The battle of the Apple pundits is over, and Mark Gurman is the winner. The Bloomberg writer correctly predicted that this week would see the announcement, not of a new Apple product, but of a new Apple event - and we now know it's happening a week from today, on Tuesday 15 September 2020, at 10am PDT, or 6pm UK time.
In fact, Gurman specifically said we'd get invitations to an iPhone 12 event, and we still don't know if that part is correct - Apple doesn't tell us in advance what it's going to announce. It's still possible that we'll hear instead about the new iPad and Apple Watch Series 6 that rival leaker Jon Prosser confidently said we'd get today. (He's taking the loss reasonably well.) The iPhone 12 launch may still have to wait until October.
But this is an actual event, complete with bells and whistles and invites ahead of time. (It'll be virtual, so Apple could have got away with giving less notice; it clearly wants to make sure everyone is free.) We'll therefore be very surprised if the iPhone 12 isn't announced on 15 September, although actual onsale availability, perhaps of certain models, may have to wait a little longer.
Apple is hardly going to make a song and dance about the Apple Watch, then slip the iPhone 12 out in a press release. Running two separate events is more plausible, but seems unnecessarily inefficient.
A cursory knowledge of Apple's launch roadmap tells us that an entire raft of products is waiting to be updated: other than the expected iPad, Apple Watch and iPhone, a new Apple TV is under development, and we expect to hear before long about AirTags, a games controller, a new HomePod and new AirPods, not to mention the upcoming Apple Silicon MacBook. Whether those will all be ready for 15 September is another matter.
It's traditional at this point to analyse the invitation itself for clues. There's no tagline just yet (in the past we've had things like "There's more in the making", "By innovation only", "Let us loop you in" and "There's something in the air" - some of them offering useful hints, and others essentially meaningless) but the Apple logo is intriguing.
Most obviously it's blue, as was the emoji on the #appleevent hashflag, and this will provoke the usual chatter about a dark-blue iPhone 12. We'd love dark-blue AirPods, if Apple is listening, but that's considerably less likely.
The actual design of the logo, too, is unusual: a sort of stylised calligraphic effect, in which you can follow the strokes of a digital brush forming the shape. Calligraphy usually hints at art and products aimed at creatives: a new Apple Pencil, or more likely a new iPad on which to use an Apple Pencil, seems like a good bet.
Whatever is announced, you'll hear about it first on Macworld. Join us here on the night for all the news and our expert analysis of it.